BEST BETS NFL WEEK 6: BET ON THE BEST
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Week Five was not kind to us in Best Bets, but I’m not going to let a down week discourage me. Week Five was also a disaster for me in 2019, and I was able to right the ship after that, so there’s no reason to believe we can’t get back on track this week. What’s the best way to get back on track, you ask? Bet on the best teams in the NFL: The Chiefs & Packers.
KC (-3.5) @ BUF
ODDS: -110
Both of these teams are coming off of very poor performances last week, with the Chiefs falling 40-32 to the Raiders at home on Sunday, while the Bills got smoked by the Titans 42-16 on Tuesday night in Nashville after the game was postponed due to COVID. While the Bills certainly looked worse in their game, both teams looked off and will be striving for a bounce-back performance this week.
I still believe the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL, and 3.5 points, in a year when home-field advantage doesn’t exist, simply isn’t enough. The Chiefs are 8-2 against the spread in their past 10 games, and have a 12-2 ATS record in their past 14 road games. Chiefs win by a touchdown or more.
GB (-2.5) @ TB
ODDS: +110
This line has moved to closer to GB (-1) and I honestly don’t understand the love for Tampa. The Bucs are coming off a horrendous loss to the Bears, and Green Bay will be by far their toughest opponent of the season. Add in the return of Devante Adams and the Buccaneers will have their hands full.
The Packers are 4-0 this season, and 4-0 ATS, and coming off a bye week, so there’s no reason to believe they won’t be rested and ready for the Bucs. The Bucs with Tom Brady are public betting favorites this year, which has lead to inflated lines and a 2-3 ATS record this year. Even with a healthy Chris Godwin & Mike Evans, I don’t see them being able to score enough to beat the Packers.
Teaser (6 Points): BAL/PHI O(41.5), HOU/TEN O(47), AZ/DAL O(49)
ODDS: +150
The Eagles offense was surprisingly strong against the Steelers’ stout defense last week, scoring 29 points in a loss. While the Ravens defense is probably a bit stronger than the Steelers, there shouldn’t bee too much of a difference for the Eagles. They’ve gone OVER 41.5 in all five of their games so far, while the totals in Ravens games have been OVER 41.5 in four of five, so this should be a safe number.
The Titans & Texans bet comes down to the simple fact that the Titans are averaging 35.3 points over their last 3 games, while the Texans are averaging 22 points per game this season and haven’t scored fewer than 16 despite playing elite defenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh. This game should have no problem getting over 47 points.
Dallas has the worst defense in the NFL, and at this point I don’t think I need to justify betting OVERs in their games. Dallas totals this season are averaging a whopping 69 points, so this bet has a comfortable 20-pt cushion on the average of Cowboys games. Even with Andy Dalton at QB for the Cowboys, this is an easy bet.
Teaser (6 Points): BAL (-2), IND(-2), MIA (-3)
ODDS: +150
As I pointed out a few weeks ago in Best Bets, the Ravens are dominant when favored by a touchdown or more. They’re 7-0-1 ATS when favored by 6.5 or more dating back to November of 2019. They’re (-8) favorites in this one, so they should have no issue covering this teaser.
The Colts are 3-1 ATS as favorites this season, with the one loss coming in Week One. While the Bengals have been a strong ATS team this season, they don’t match up well with the Colts at all in this game. The Bengals have the 31st-ranked rushing defense in the NFL, while the Colts have a run-happy offense ranking 5th in the NFL in rush attempts. The Colts O-Line will dominate the trenches in this one, and will pound the rock to a victory.
Miami is playing the Jets. Need I say more?