Best Bets NFL Week 10: Betting the Trends
- Best Bets Write-Ups
- Comments Off on Best Bets NFL Week 10: Betting the Trends
- Posted on
There weren’t a lot of lines that I liked this week, so it’s a light Best Bets with just three plays. Three plays worked out well for us last week with a 2-1 +1.4unit record, so we’ll look to continue the momentum with this one. Best of luck!
LAC @ MIA OVER (48)
ODDS: -110
I honestly had to do a double-take on this line because I couldn’t believe that it wasn’t set somewhere higher than 50. But it’s real, so we’re betting the OVER. The Chargers have hit the OVER in their past five games, with over 57 points scores in all of them. They have a high-flying offense and a non-existent defense that leads to high-scoring games even with low-scoring opponents like the Broncos.
The Dolphins have a solid defense, which has led to them actually hitting more UNDERs than OVERs this season. However, they’ve played a lot of offenses that rank in the bottom-half of the league, and they’ve had over 50 combined points in all of their games against teams with offenses that rank in the top half of the league. I don’t see them slowing down Herbert’s passing game, so I believe this bet will hit comfortably.
Teaser (6 Points): SEA (+7.5), HOU (+9), LAC (+9)
ODDS: +150
I call this the “close game teaser” as I believe all of these will be tight games, so I’m taking the underdogs with six extra points. The Seahawks & Rams are divisional opponents that tend to play close games, with three of their past four meetings being decided by five points or fewer. Furthermore, if this game does turn into a blowout, it will be in the Seahawks favor, as they have one of the best offenses in the league, and Wilson won’t play two bad games in a row.
The Browns are 3-5 against the spread this year, and despite playing well this season, they aren’t winning games handily. Houston, on the other hand, hasn’t been good this year, but Deshaun Watson is playing the best football of his career, and is keeping the Texans hanging around in games, losing by only one score to teams like Pittsburgh, Minnesota & Tennessee. There’s also some bad weather forecasted in Cleveland, and bad weather also typically leads to close games. So while I do think the Browns will win this game, I think the Texans keep it within nine.
Lastly, the Chargers haven’t lost a game by more than 8 points at any point this season. In fact, the only other team in the NFL that hasn’t lost by double digits, is the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers. I’m simply betting on that trend to continue.
Teaser (6 points): GB (-7), NO (-3.5), BAL (-1.5)
ODDS: +150
Of Green Bay’s six wins, the closest one was a seven-point win over the Saints, and all five others have been by more than one score. This week they host the pitiful Jacksonville Jaguars on a blustery day in Wisconsin. They’ll win this one by more than a touchdown.
After the Saint destroyed the Bucs on Sunday Night Football last week, it’s hard not to say that they’ve flipped the switch. They’ve finally got the defense playing at the level they’re capable of, and the offense, which has been good, looks borderline unstoppable with Michael Thomas back in the fold. They’re hosting a 49ers team that could not be any more beat up by injuries, and are 2-4 ATS in their past 6 games. Saints roll in this one.
The last game is essentially just a bet for the Ravens to beat the Patriots, and think that’s a foregone conclusion in this one. The Ravens have the top scoring defense in the NFL, and the Patriots are ranked 28th in points per game, so Baltimore should have no trouble slowing down the Patriots’ anemic offense down and winning this one by multiple scores.