Best Bets NFL 2020: First-Ever Super Wild Card Weekend
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I’m returning to Best Bets for the playoffs after an admittedly subpar year. We still made money this regular season, but certainly not a whole lot with a total of +1.43u. In other words, if your typical wager is $10, and you followed all of my picks here for the season, you would have profited $14.30 for the regular season. Not great by any means, but if you can bet on games for over four months and walk away with more money than you started with, you’re in good shape.
The playoffs obviously get more difficult to bet on with fewer games for the oddsmakers to focus on, and more people gambling on each game. So I feel it is my duty to once again remind you that I am not guaranteeing anything, nor instructing you how to gamble or how much. I wager for fun, and these are some bets that I’m personally placing this weekend, and you should do whatever you’re comfortable with. If you do choose to follow me, best of luck!
Teaser (6 pts): LAR/SEA U(48), BAL/TEN O(48.5), CLE/PIT U(53)
ODDS: +150
The Rams & Seahawks have already played two low-scoring games this season, including a 20-9 game just 2 weeks ago, and I don’t expect this one to be any different. The Rams have the league’s best defense, allowing just 18.5 points per game this year, and they’re going to need it this weekend. With Jared Goff nursing a surgically-repaired broken thumb from just 13 days ago, the Rams offense is certainly going to struggle. I’m writing this 5 hours before kickoff and we still don’t know if Goff or Wolford will start, but in either case I don’t see the Rams getting much past 20 points, if at all.
The Seahawks barely eclipsed 300 yards as a team the last time they played the Rams, and gave up five sacks to the vaunted Rams defensive line. The Hawks scored a garbage time TD, after Goff left with an injury, to get to 20 points in that game, but in the playoffs there’s no garbage time.
The Titans and Ravens both have high-flying offenses, and both enter this game relatively healthy. They played an overtime game earlier this season that ended in a 30-24 win for the Titans. I don’t see the Titans holding the Ravens to just 24 points this week, as some flukey turnovers and injuries in the running game held the Ravens back. This week I expect them to score far more prolifically, which will force Ryan Tannehill & the Titans underrated passing offense to keep pace. I could see this one getting over 60 points, so I’ll happily take 48.5
The Steelers have one of the best defenses in the league, and the Browns love to run the football, which should lead to a low-scoring, rock fight of a game. Despite a drastic difference in success for these two franchises over the last two decades, they have a history of playing close and low-scoring games. These two teams haven’t eclipsed 53 points in a game against each other since September of 2014.
Teaser (6 pts): BUF (-1), TB (-2), TEN (+9)
ODDS: +150
The Buffalo Bills are 15-1 against the spread this season when teased by six points. So why not ride that trend? Like I mentioned on the podcast, I do think the Colts will keep this one relatively close, but the Bills are by far the better team and playing their best football of the season. Getting them down to (-1) is probably the best value in all of Wild Card Weekend.
Tom Brady and the high-flying Buccaneers can’t possibly lose to the 7-9 Washington Football Team, right? Washington is easily the worst team to make the playoffs this year, and as of this writing, it is unclear whether or not Alex Smith is healthy enough to play, If he’s not, Washington will have to turn to Taylor Heinicke at QB, and I think we can all agree that would be a disaster. Smith could keep this game closer, but either way the Bucs will win by a field goal or more.
The Titans and Ravens game should be the best one of the weekend, and I’m taking the Titans (+9) simply because I can’t see either of these teams winning by double-digits. This is the type of game that will likely come down to the last few possessions, so this bet is essentially just betting on a close game. Wild Card Weekend underdogs are 11-1 ATS in the last three seasons, so betting on a close game is a historically a good call.
Good luck to all, and enjoy playoff football!