Best Bets NFL Week 11: Mixing Things Up
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It’s been a couple of strong weeks for Best Bets, with a 4-2, +2.9 unit record over Weeks 9 & 10, so we’ll look to keep that momentum going, starting with our first-ever 1st quarter bet in this segment. Best of luck to all!
1st Quarter MIN (-3) v. DAL
ODDS: EVEN
I’ve never put a partial-game bet in this segment because they’re typically unpredictable, but I was too tempted when it was brought to my attention that the Vikings are the best team in the NFL at 8-1 against the spread for first-quarter lines. They have scored at least one touchdown in seven of their nine games, and have been shutout in the first quarter only once. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have scored just three field goals in the first quarters of their four games since Dak Prescott got hurt.
CIN @ WAS OVER(47)
ODDS: -110
The Bengals have been a strong OVER team this year, with a decent offense and a bad defense, leading to six OVERs in their nine games. The OVER in Washington Football Team games is just 4-4-1, but their offense got a shot in the arm with Alex Smith getting his first start in two years and throwing for nearly 400 yards, so they should have no trouble moving the ball against this porous Cincinnati defense.
KC (-7) @ OAK
ODDS: -110
The Raiders aren’t beating the Chiefs twice in the same season, and I honestly think the Chiefs will run away with this one. They dared Derek Carr to throw the ball in the last meeting, loading the box to stop the run, and Carr, to his credit, diced them up throwing it downfield. While it was an ugly performance from the Chiefs’ defense, their shortcomings were not due to lack of talent, but a poor game plan. That’s fixable, and there’s no doubt they’ll play this game differently. Add in the fact that Andy Reid is notoriously strong coming off a bye week, and the Chiefs will win this one by double digits.
Teaser (6 Points): GB (+8.5), CIN (+7), TEN (+12.5)
ODDS: +150
I think the Packers could very-well lose this weekend’s game against the Colts, but they won’t lose by multiple scores. The Colts pass defense is strong, but they’ve faced a very soft schedule of offenses, and the Packers will be their toughest test yet. Green Bay is also just as likely to win this game, so I feel very comfortable getting 8.5 points for a team that’s 6-3 against the spread this season.
The Bengals are 6-2-1 ATS this season, and Washington is 3-6, and I see this one being a very close game. Simply riding the trends and expecting two evenly-matched bad teams to play a close game with this bet.
The Titans & Ravens are both in must-win situations with Tennessee having dropped three of their last four games, and the Ravens having lost two of three. Both of these teams are good but flawed, and given that they’re both desperate, it should be a close game. Calais Campbell is expected to be out once again this week, and his absence helped Damien Harris and the Patriots run for 173 yards on the Ravens’ defense last week. With Derrick Henry in the backfield, the Titans should be able to do the same, so getting 12.5 points should be very safe.