Best Bets NFL Week 14: More Teasers & Parlays
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Moneyline Parlay: Buccaneers + Chiefs + Colts
ODDS: (+173)
Tampa Bay is coming off a bye week, and at 7-5 they need to win this game to give themselves a cushion from the bottom of the wild card race. They’ve struggled a bit offensively lately, but I think the bye week gave them an opportunity to iron out some of the details to get this offense running to its explosive potential again. The Vikings have won five of their last six games, thanks in large part to Dalvin Cook who has 1,011 yards from scrimmage and 7 touchdowns in his last six games. The reason I like the Buccaneers is due to their run defense, which is the best in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per carry. I don’t think Cook will get going in this game, and as a result, the Vikings won’t be able to keep up with the Bucs on the scoreboard.
Kansas City is the best team in the NFL, and despite not doing so well against the spread recently, they’re finding ways to win every game. While the Dolphins have been a fun story, having won seven of their past eight games, their wins have come against teams with a combined record of 26-70. The Chiefs are just too big of a step up in competition for the Dolphins.
The Colts have been an up & down team this season, but they’ve played best against teams with a poor pass-rush, giving Philip Rivers time to make his reads and throws. The Raiders rank 30th in the NFL in sack percentage, and don’t generate a lot of pressure, so I expect Rivers to have an easy time throwing the football in this one. Beyond that, this game is a major defensive mismatch, as the Colts rank 9th in the NFL in scoring defense, while the Raiders rank 28th. This one should be a big step for the Colts towards getting back to the playoffs.
Teaser (6 pts): NYJ/SEA O(41) – MIN/TB U(59) – IND/LV O(46.5)
ODDS: +150
I like the OVER in the Jets-Seahawks game simply because I think this is the game where the Seahawks get their offense back on track after sputtering for the last few weeks. Additionally, the Jets have score 27 or more points in three of their last four games, and the Seahawks defense is not stellar, so the Jets should be able to put up some points. With those circumstances, 41 is a low number to clear.
The line for the Vikings & Bucs game opened on Monday at 47.5 points, and has since moved all the way up to 53. So I’m placing this bet simply for the value. It’s moved 5.5 points from where the oddsmakers had it, and the oddsmakers usually aren’t that far off. Teasing it an additional six points is essentially getting the line 11.5 points above where the oddsmakers set it, which is extremely rare. I think both teams will run the ball a lot in this game, and the total will stay under 60 points.
The OVER is 9-3 in Raiders games this season, and 6-2 in the Colts last eight games, and I don’t expect that trend to break in this game. I already touched on the Colts and Rivers being able to move the ball in this game, and the Raiders have scored over 30 points in four of their past five games.