Best Bets NFL Week 15: Underdogs, Top Dogs & Teasers
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After a nice and clean +3.22 unit Sunday last weekend, I’m looking to keep the momentum going, this time with a few more bets to hopefully push this season well into the green. Best of luck to all!
KC (-3) @ NO
ODDS: -110
I talked about this one on the podcast, and it’s simply a bet on the value of getting the best team in the NFL laying only three points. I’m shocked this line hasn’t moved towards the Chiefs, especially after the news that the Saints top receiver, Michael Thomas, will not play in this game. The Chiefs should be able to beat this short-handed Saints team with ease.
Teaser (6 pts): BAL (-7), CHI (+9), IND (-1.5)
ODDS: +150
The Ravens are in a situation where they need to win out to make the playoffs, and they have the easiest schedule in the NFL remaining. The Jags are in shambles, as they’ve turned back to Gardner Minshew after benching him earlier in the season. While I do think Minshew is the best QB on the Jags roster, he has a tendency to turn the ball over and the hawking secondary of the Ravens should be able to eat that up. Additionally, the Ravens have the top-ranked rushing offense in the NFL, while the Jaguars rank 30th in run defense. This will be an easy one for the Ravens.
I also talked about the Bears @ Vikings game on the podcast, notably that Matt Nagy is 4-1 against Mike Zimmer as a head coach, with his only loss coming a few weeks ago. It’s tough to beat a divisional opponent twice in the same season, especially when they’re evenly matched. I have a small moneyline bet on the Bears in this game, but I’m not confident enough to put in best bets. The Bears getting nine points, though? That’s a no brainer.
The Colts, like the Ravens, are in a must-win situation against an inferior opponent. While I think the Texans will be a much tougher opponent than the Jags, I can’t see them slowing the Colts’ offense down enough to stay in this game. You’ll see in a moment, but I also love the OVER in this game. The Colts have finally figured out their offense, both running and throwing the ball well, and all of that against the Texans’ 31st-ranked defense should lead to a Colts win.
Teaser (6 pts): HOU/IND O(45), CHI/MIN U(53), TB/ATL O(42.5)
ODDS: +150
As I just mentioned, both the Colts and Texans have strong offenses, and the Texans have a very poor defense. While the Colts are commonly known for having a good defense, they rank only 12th in points allowed, and have given up 20+ points in eight of their last nine games. They met a few weeks ago and combined for 46 points, but a Deshaun Watson fumble on the goal-line with 3 minutes left, cost the Texans the game, and the OVER from hitting. I expect this one to be higher scoring, and even if not, 46 gets the job done for this teaser.
The UNDER 53 bet in the Vikings/Bears game is a simple one: these teams haven’t combined for more than 53 points in a game since 2015. The highest scoring game that Mike Zimmer & Matt Nagy have played against each other was their first meeting which ended in a 25-20 Bears win, a full 8 points lower than the total in this teaser.
Oddly enough, the Falcons & Buccaneers have not yet met in 2020, despite being division rivals. This is the first of their two meetings in the final three weeks of the season, and I’m expecting some fireworks in this one. The Falcons have nothing to play for this season but it’s always easy to get up for a divisional game. They should matchup well with the Buccaneers’ defense, as the Falcons don’t run the ball much, and stopping the run is the Bucs’ strength. On the other side, Tampa desperately needs a win to stay firmly in the playoff picture, and with all the talent they have on offense, they should have no issue scoring on the Falcons’ 16th ranked scoring defense.
Team Total: CIN U(13.5 pts) v. PIT.
ODDS: -110
As I’ve mentioned here before, I don’t often dive into side bets because they can be volatile, but there are some that are no brainers, and we’ve got one this week. The Bengals have been the worst team in the NFL since Joe Burrow’s season-ending knee injury, and yes that statement includes the Jets. Cincinnati has scored more than 13 points just once without Burrow, and that was in a 19-17 loss to the Giants. Last week, they mustered only seven points against the Cowboys’ putrid defense, and the Steelers are a major step up in competition. Given all that, I have a hard time seeing the Bengals score two touchdowns against the league’s top-ranked scoring defense.