Best Bets NFL Week 3: Riding the Cardinals
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AZ (-6) vs. DET
Odds: -110
This pick, much like the 49ers last week, comes down to a gambling creed that I live by: don’t overthink it. Kliff Kingsbury has Kyler Murray and the Cardinals playing some great football, as they’re off to a 2-0 start with wins over the 49ers & Washington Football Team. The Lions are on the opposite end of the spectrum after an 0-2 start featuring a blown 17-pt lead in the fourth quarter against the Bears and a 42-21 blowout at the hands of the Packers.
The Lions are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games as underdogs, while the Cardinals are 6-2-2 against the spread in their last 10 games overall (data on their record as favorites was useless, as they’ve been favored in only 2 games since Kingsbury took over as head coach). Add those trends to the banged-up Lions’ secondary and I see the Cardinals winning and covering easily. Like I said, don’t overthink it.
LAR @ BUF OVER (47.5)
Odds: -110
If you had told me before the season that I’d be betting an OVER in a game involving the Buffalo Bills I would’ve laughed at you. The past two years they’ve been an UNDER team (11 OVERs, 21 UNDERs in 2018 & 2019 combined) in large part due to a stout defense and underwhelming quarterback play from Josh Allen. But all of that has changed this year, as Allen is currently leading the NFL in passing yards (yes, you read that correctly) and the Bills’ defense has given up a combined 45 points to the Jets & Dolphins (yes, you also read that correctly). That’s lead the Bills to hitting both OVERs to start the 2020 season.
On the other side, the Rams are playing really good football to start their 2020 campaign. They were my official “Under the Radar Contender” in the NFC and they’ve proven me right so far with a close win over the Cowboys and a blowout of the Eagles. The Rams have hit OVERs in four of their last five games, and I could easily see this game turning into a shootout. But we won’t even need a shootout to win this bet. If each team reaches their scoring average in this game, the OVER would hit by a full 10 points. This one should be a lock barring an injury to either starting QB.
Teaser (6 points): GB (+9), SEA (+1), TEN (+3.5)
Odds: +150
I love this teaser for the simple fact that I believe all three of these teams are going to win their games outright, and I’m getting points for all of them.
Under head coach Matt Lafleur, the Green Bay Packers have been underdogs in five games and they’ve won four of them outright. This week they’re 3-point underdogs to a Saints team coming off a loss to the Oakland Raiders. Beyond that, the Saints are bad at covering spreads early in the year, specially as favorites. The Saints are 6-14 in their last 20 September games as favorites under head coach Sean Payton. Green Bay covering nine points in this one should be a breeze.
The Seahawks have been an offensive juggernaut so far in 2020 with 38- and 35-point performances thanks in large part to Russell Wilson’s near-perfect start to the season. That’s led them to a 2-0 record with wins over the Falcons & Patriots, though their defense has been shaky in both.
The Cowboys are 1-1 thanks to a loss at the hands of the Rams, and a win that was gifted to them on a silver platter by the Falcons. To say they’ve been inconsistent to start the season would be an understatement. I’m not really sure what this Cowboys team is yet, but I am sure that they’re going to struggle mightily on defense in this game. Russell Wilson is playing some outstanding football, and the Cowboys defense looked like Swiss Cheese against the Falcons last week. There’s a reason the Seahawks have been underdogs at home only 4 times in the past 8 seasons, so teasing them to (+1) in a home game is always a good bet.
The Titans are 2.5-point favorites in Minnesota this weekend, and I honestly don’t think it’s enough. The Vikings defense has been nothing short of atrocious so far this season, and the offense hasn’t been much better. In the first 3 quarters of their two games, the Vikings have managed just 13 points combined. All of their offense has come in garbage time after their opponents have taken big leads and played softer defensive schemes. They’re making a legitimate case to be one of the league’s worst teams in 2020, and I’m happy to bet against them, especially when the Titans can afford a 3-pt loss and still win the bet.
Teaser (6 points): HOU(+9.5), AZ (-0), LAR (+8)
Odds: +150
I’ve already touched on the Cardinals and why they’ll cover a 6-point spread, so just winning this game should be close to a guarantee. I mentioned that the Lions are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games as underdogs, and they’ve also lost all ten of those games. I have no choice but to double up on the Cardinals this weekend.
The Rams & Bills are both 2-0, but the Rams have beaten the Cowboys & Eagles, while the Bills beat the Jets & Dolphins, so it’s hard to count their records as equal. Beyond that, the Rams are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games. I think the Rams win this game outright, or at worst lose by a score. Getting eight points is a no-brainer.
Lastly, I like the Texans to cover the spread in what I think will be a very close game with the Steelers. The Steelers have a great defense and a strong offense, and may very well win this game, but they beat the Giants by 10 and the Broncos (without their starting QB) by only five, so they’re not running away from opponents. Whatever you think of the Texans, I think we can all agree they’re better than the Giants & Broncos. Combine that with the fact that this is a must-win game for the Texans and I just can’t see them getting blown out.