Best Bets NFL Week 7: It’s Teaser Time
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After giving out my first-ever Thursday night play in Best Bets, the Eagles completely forgot how to play offense until the final five minutes of the game. I expected the Eagles offense to move the ball at will, which they did after 55 minutes of sloppy football. It was enough to win the game, but not enough to cover the four-point spread, so we’re headed into the weekend 0-1 this week, but we’ll look to bounce back with three teasers at (+150) to go with two straight-up plays. Good luck!
PIT (ML) @ TEN
ODDS: EVEN
The Steelers opened the week as (-2) and I bet it, assuming the spread would get worse for the Steelers, but boy was I wrong. It’s now sitting at PIT (+1) and EVEN odds on the moneyline, so I bet them again on the moneyline and that’s the play for Best Bets.
After the Titans needed overtime to beat the 1-5 Texans, and the Steelers beat the 4-2 Browns by 31 points, I really have no clue how this line moved towards the Titans. While both teams are undefeated, The Steelers are 4-1 against the spread this season and the Titans are 2-3 ATS. The Titans only strong win was against the Bills, but otherwise they have been unimpressive with narrow wins over the Vikings, Jaguars & Broncos. It should be a good game, but the value is clearly with the Steelers.
CHI @ LAR UNDER(45)
ODDS: -110
This one’s really simple for me: Matt Nagy & Sean McVay have met twice as head coaches and the final scores were 15-6 in 2018 & 17-7 in 2019. Neither team’s roster has changed significantly enough over the past three years for me to believe this game will be any different, as both coaches clearly know how to defend the other. Beyond the coaching matchup, the UNDER is 4-2 in both Rams & Bears games this season, so there’s no reason to believe that trend won’t continue on Monday night.
Teaser (6 points): CHI (+11.5), LAC (-1.5), TB (+3)
ODDS: +150
I already discussed the last two matchups between the Rams & Bears, and both were defensive battles. Low-scoring affairs rarely lead to blowouts, so while I expect the Rams to win, I don’t expect it to be by two touchdowns.
The Chargers are looking for their first win since Week One against the Bengals, and there’s really no better spot to do it than coming off a bye week and playing the pitiful Jacksonville Jaguars. Rookie QB Justin Herbert has been excellent since taking over as the starter, but has had the misfortune of playing against Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady and Drew Brees in three of his first four starts, so he hasn’t gotten a win yet. The Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last four games, and I expect the Chargers to dominate from start to finish.
The Buccaneers are fresh off of a dominant victory against the previously undefeated Green Bay Packers, and are only slight favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders. While the Raiders played an impressive game before their bye week, beating the Chiefs, the Buccaneers defense should prove to be a tougher test for them. The Raiders’ defense has been very leaky this season, and I just can’t see them scoring enough to keep up with the Bucs.
Teaser (6 Points): TB/LV O(47.5), SEA/AZ O(50.5), CHI/LAR U(51)
ODDS: +150
Raiders OVERs are 5-0 this year, averaging 60.6 with their lowest-scoring game totaling 53 points. They’ve played a lot of high scoring games, even with teams that don’t typically hit OVERs like the Patriots and Panthers. So with Bucs being 3-3 in OVER/UNDERs, teasing the line down six points with the Raiders should be an easy OVER.
The reason for betting OVER (50.5) in Seattle/Arizona is easy: every single one of the Seahawks games this year has had 53 or more points in it. They’re a dominant offense with a very weak defense. I’ll be using Seattle OVERs in a lot of teasers this year.
I went over the Rams/Bears UNDER up above, I’m just doubling down on the Rams-Bears UNDER with an additional six-point cushion.
Teaser (6 Points): CAR/NO O(45), CLE/CIN O(45), PIT/TEN O(46)
ODDS: +150
While Carolina hasn’t been much of an OVER team so far this year, the Saints have gone OVER in all five of their games this season, and in eight of their last 10 dating back to last season. Saints’ games have had an average of 60.6 points scored, with a low of 57 this season. With a number as low as 45 after teasing, it would be irresponsible not to bet the OVER in this one.
Taking the OVER in the Browns/Bengals game is simply betting the trend for both teams, as OVERs are 7-3 in the last 10 games for both the Bengals and Browns. Browns’ games this season are averaging 58.3 points while Bengals games are averaging 47.7 points. OVER 45 should be safe in this one.
The Titans and Steelers have two of the top-five offenses in the NFL with the Titans averaging 33.4 points per game and the Steelers averaging 29.4. I expect this one to be a shootout, with both Ben Roethlisberger and Ryan Tannehill playing well.