Best Bets: Week 2 NFL 2020
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Welcome to the first ever Best Bets writeup, where I’ll go into more detail explaining my picks from the podcast each week. So let’s get started with my first five plays of the 2020 season, here in Week Two.
MIN (+135) @ IND
Neither the Colts nor the Vikings impressed in Week One, with the Colts losing to the lowly Jaguars on the road 27-20, and the Vikings getting steamrolled by the Packers 43-34 at home. After those results, I’m not really sure what led to oddsmakers liking the Colts by three points, as the Vikings are a step up in competition from the Jaguars. On the other side of things, the Colts will be a big step down in competition from the Packers. The Vikings also have the benefit of a little more continuity on their team from last season. In a year with no preseason games and a shortened offseason, the Colts brought in a new quarterback in Philip Rivers and are still bringing him up to speed with their offense and the chemistry with his new receivers just isn’t there yet.
Last week, their star receiver T.Y. Hilton was targeted nine times, but hauled in only four catches and dropped two. The Colts will need some more time to get the offense clicking, so I like the Vikings to bounce back against a weaker opponent and win this one. If you want to be a little more conservative you could also take the three points and bet MIN (+3).
SF (-7) @ NYJ
One of the best teams in the league, coming off a disappointing loss in Week One, against one of the worst teams in the league. Enough said?
Adam Gase is the worst head coach in the NFL, and in last week’s game the Jets looked like a team that hadn’t practiced all summer and were thrashed by the Buffalo Bills. The 49ers are the defending NFC champs and need a bounce-back win after a divisional loss in Week One, and head coach Kyle Shanahan will have a number of tricks up his sleeve this week. The 49ers winning by more than a touchdown almost feels like a foregone conclusion. Don’t overthink it, SF (-7) is the no-brainer play in this game.
CAR @ TB OVER(48.5)
These two teams both looked shaky on defense last week, while both of their games ended with well over 50 points and losses for both teams. With Tom Brady & Bruce Arians on one side of the field, we know Tampa Bay is going to be aggressive with the football, which will lead to touchdowns or turnovers, both of which can be good for OVERs. Arians’ Buccaneers hit the OVER in 12 out of 16 games last season, and again last week, so you’ll see me betting Tampa Bay OVERs a lot this year.
On the other side of the things the Panthers have a new head coach in Matt Rhule who is all about offense after his days coaching at Baylor in the NCAA’s highest-scoring conference, the Big 12. Additionally, they’ve brought in a new offensive coordinator in Joe Brady who comes over from the NCAA National-Champion LSU Tigers, where he engineered the highest scoring offense in all of college football last year. Last week, the Panthers put up 30 points in a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, so I expect them to both score, and give up, a lot of points this year. Easy OVER pick in this game.
Moneyline Parlay: BAL-KC-SF (+120)
I’ve parlayed the league’s three best teams from last season to all win their games this week, and it feels like a safe parlay. The Ravens are taking on the Houston Texans, whom they beat 41-7 last year. After a Week One decimation of the Cleveland Browns, the Ravens & Lamar Jackson have clearly picked up where they left off last season, and I see them easily skating by the Texans.
The Chiefs, having played on Thursday night, had 10 days to prepare for a Chargers team that could muster only 16 points against the Bengals porous defense last week, so I see absolutely no way they can score enough to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Easy win for Kansas City in this one.
As I touched on earlier, the 49ers are a vastly superior team to the Jets. Short of a meteor hitting the 49ers sideline and wiping out the whole team, there’s no way the Jets win this game.
Teaser: GB (-0) – NE (+10) – CAR (+15) – (+150)
This three way teaser features a favorite playing a severely inferior team and two underdogs in games that I think will be close. The Packers head home to Lambeau Field where they are 6-point favorites against a Lions team that blew a 17-point 4th-quarter lead last week against the Bears. Mitchell Trubisky threw for 242 yards and 3 TDs against this Lions defense, so I expect Aaron Rodgers to have another monster performance. By teasing them 6 points, all the Packers have to do is a win this game.
The Patriots head to Seattle to take on the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, and this promises to be a good one. While I think the Seahawks ultimately win, I expect it to be a close game. The Patriots’ defense is still very strong, and Cam Newton looked very comfortable in his debut with the Patriots. I see this one as a low-scoring game with both teams running the ball a lot and attempting to control the clock. Anytime you can get 10 points for Bill Belichick’s team, you take it.
I touched on the Panthers and Bucs being a high-scoring game earlier, but I also don’t think it’ll be a blowout. I think the Bucs will win, but teasing the Panthers all the way to +15 insures this teaser against any style of game that isn’t a complete blowout for the Bucs.
Best of luck to all, and as always, bet responsibly and only wager what you’re comfortable with.